The Holy Father, the bishop of Rome, pontifex maximus, His Holiness Pope Francis died last week, on the second day of the 2025 Easter Octave (that’s the day after Easter Sunday, to you apostates), and has now been laid to rest.
When Pope John Paul II died in 2005, and when Pope Benedict retired in 2013, I ran a game we called Popestakes, a simple sweepstakes lottery to allow people to bet on whom the next Pope would be.
Well, we’re back. But with some changes.
The rules for Popestakes III
Entries will cost £5 per person
One entry per person
The contest is open to anyone: please tell your friends
You will receive two entries:
For your first entry you will be allocated (at random, as in a standard sweepstakes) a potential Pope from the list of 15 top-seeded cardinals.
For your second entry you may choose any other cardinal who is not in the list of 15 top seeds. If you do not wish to pick one of those, you may opt instead to have one randomly allocated to you.
The full pot (the sum of all entry fees minus credit/debit card transaction fees) will be paid out to the person who has selected or been allocated the cardinal who is named Pope by the conclave.
If more than one person has selected or been allocated the named electee, the pot will be shared between those winners.
To enter, click here to pay the £5 entry fee and once you’ve paid you’ll be directed to the Google Form to make your choice. If you are not directed to the form, contact me using the button below and I’ll send it to you.
You may enter whenever you like, but it would be wise to do so before the conclave begins on Wednesday 7 May, 2025.
Questions
Is this legal?
Under the UK’s gambling legislation I do not believe this to be an illegal lottery.
Will I go to hell?
I can’t tell you that. On the question of whether this game specifically will lead you to eternal damnation, my learned theological opinion is that there is long precedent for people betting on the conclave, which suggests that… well, you may or not find it reassuring. In any case, the church’s position is that the sole condition of entry to heaven is that at the point of death one exists in a state of grace. The rest is up to you.
From where did you get the list of runners and riders?
From oddschecker.com which has a comprehensive list. I have not checked any of the names so should you pick a name who turns out to be in some way ineligible, that’s on you.
Where is the entry money going?
I have to pay a small fee on the payment card transactions. Other than that, every penny will be paid out in winnings as described in the rules above.
What if nobody wins?
If the new Pope has not been chosen by (or allocated to) any Popestakes player, all the prize money will be donated to charity.
Can you help me choose whom to back?
Here’s an entertaining Bluesky thread comparing some of the big names to central bankers. I grant you that’s probably not the kind of help you were hoping for, but it does give each of them some biographical detail.
How do I know you’re not just going to run off with all the money?
You don’t: you’ll just have to trust me. But you broadly know who I am, and also I’ve run this twice before, to the benefit of many happy participants.
The runners and riders
The top 15 seeds are:
Pietro Parolin
Luis Antonio Tagle
Peter Turkson
Matteo Zuppi
Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Peter Erdo
Robert Sarah
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
Vincent Nichols
Angelo Scola
Jean-Marc Aveline
Kevin Farrell
Jose Tolentino
Fernando Filoni
Michael Czerny
The rest of the field:
Joseph Tobin
Angelo Bagnasco
Raymond Leo Burke
Mario Grech
Timothy Radcliffe
Louis Sako
Wim Eijk
Angelo De Donatis
Timothy Dolan
Robert Francis Prevost
Francis Arinze
Konrad Krajewski
Mark Ouellet
Gerhard Ludwig Muller
Baldassare Reina
Christoph Schonborn
Wilton Daniel Gregory
Antonio Canizares Llovera
Blase Joseph Cupich
Malcolm Ranjith
Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga
Joao Braz de Aviz
Carlos Aguiar Retes
Odilo Pedro Scherer
Mauro Piacenza
Sean Patrick OMalley
Dominik Duka
Jack McDonald
Francisco Robles Ortega
Gianfranco Ravasi
Reinhard Marx
Lauro Tisi
Bechara Peter Rai
Anders Arborelius
William Goh
Thomas Collins
Arthur Roche
Piero Marini
Leonardo Steiner
Charles Maung Bo
Wilfrid Napier
Italo DellOro
Salvador Iniguez
Carlo Maria Vigano
Cristobal Lopez Romero
Daniel Sturla
Gerald Cyprien Lacroix
Jaime Spengler
Jean-Claude Hollerich
John Dew
Lazarus You Heung-sik
Mauro Gambetti
Mykola Bychok
Wilton Gregory